Nobody talks about bear markets in memecoin circles. Scroll through any Telegram group or Twitter timeline during a hot streak and it’s all “we’re so early” and rocket emojis. Then the music stops, the timeline goes quiet, and you’re sitting there watching your portfolio bleed for days wondering if the whole thing was a scam from the start.
It wasn’t. But your approach to it probably was flawed, and that’s okay. I went through my first real memecoin bear market about a year into trading Solana tokens, and it taught me more than any green candle ever did. Here’s what I wish I’d known going in.
What a Memecoin Bear Market Actually Looks Like
First, let’s define what we’re talking about. A memecoin bear market isn’t exactly the same as a Bitcoin bear market. BTC might decline 30% over months and everyone calls it a crash. In memecoin land, a bear market looks like this:
- New token launches drop 50-70%. Instead of 500 new tokens per day on PumpFun, you see 150. The hype machine slows down noticeably.
- Average token lifespan shrinks. Tokens that used to hold attention for hours now die in minutes. There’s less money chasing each one.
- Graduation rates collapse. Far fewer tokens make it from PumpFun to Raydium because there aren’t enough buyers to push them through the bonding curve.
- Volume across the board dries up. Even “good” tokens trade at a fraction of their normal volume.
- Twitter and Telegram go quiet. The callers stop calling. The influencers pivot to something else. The group chats feel like ghost towns.
This can last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Sometimes it’s triggered by a broader crypto pullback, sometimes by a single massive rug pull that shakes confidence, and sometimes it just happens because the market ran too hot and needs to cool off.
The Three Phases of Denial
I’ve noticed that most traders, myself included, go through the same emotional cycle during their first bear market. Understanding these phases ahead of time might save you from making the worst decisions at the worst times.
Phase 1: “This is just a dip”
The market drops for a day or two and you convince yourself it’s a buying opportunity. You might even increase your positions, thinking you’re being smart while everyone else panics. Sometimes you’re right. Usually, during a real bear shift, you’re catching a falling knife.
The tell: if you’re buying because of conviction in a specific token’s fundamentals (community, utility, narrative), that’s a decision. If you’re buying because “it can’t go lower,” that’s hopium. Learn to tell the difference.
Phase 2: “Maybe I should stop looking at my phone”
A few more days pass. Everything you hold is down 60-80%. New tokens you’re finding aren’t pumping like they used to. You start checking your portfolio less, not out of discipline, but because it physically hurts to look at it. This is actually the healthiest instinct you’ll have. Reducing screen time during a drawdown is genuinely good for your mental health and your wallet.
Phase 3: “Is memecoin trading even real?”
This is the existential phase. You start questioning the entire premise. Were the wins just luck? Is the game rigged? Should you just put everything in ETH and go back to your normal life?
Here’s the thing: this phase is where the real learning happens. The traders who survive it come out the other side with a completely different understanding of risk management, position sizing, and the importance of having a structured trading plan.
What NOT to Do During a Bear Market
Let me save you some money. Here are the moves that feel logical in the moment but almost always make things worse.
Don’t revenge trade
This is the number one portfolio killer during downturns. You lost money, you’re frustrated, and you start taking bigger positions on riskier tokens trying to “make it back.” You’re not trading at this point — you’re gambling with a chip on your shoulder. I’ve seen traders lose more in two days of revenge trading than they lost in the entire bear market itself.
Don’t hold everything hoping for a recovery
Some of your tokens are not coming back. That’s just the reality. During a bear market, the tokens that were already weak get wiped out entirely. If a token has lost 90% of its value and the community has disappeared, no amount of holding will fix that. Cut the dead weight.
A practical rule: if the token’s daily volume has dropped below $5,000 and the holder count is declining, it’s probably over. Sell what you can recover and redeploy that capital when conditions improve.
Don’t disappear completely
There’s a difference between stepping back for mental health (good) and completely disconnecting from the market (often costly). Bear markets are when the next cycle’s winners start forming. New projects launch, new narratives emerge, and the people who are paying attention during the quiet periods are the ones who catch the early moves when things turn around.
Stay plugged in. Keep your token scanner running. Just don’t trade every signal you see.
What You Should Actually Do
Bear markets are boring. Use that boredom productively.
Review your trade history honestly
Go back through your last 20-30 trades. For each one, write down: why you entered, what your target was, what actually happened, and whether you’d make the same trade again. I guarantee you’ll find patterns. Maybe you’re consistently entering too late. Maybe you’re over-allocating to low-liquidity tokens. Maybe you’re ignoring red flags that you know better than to ignore.
This kind of honest self-review is worth more than any paid alpha group. Your own trade history is the best education you’ll ever get, but only if you’re willing to look at the losses without flinching.
Study the tokens that survived
Not everything goes to zero in a bear market. Some tokens hold their value, or at least decline less than everything else. These are worth studying. What do they have in common? Usually it’s some combination of: real community engagement (not bot-driven), actual utility beyond speculation, and a holder base that isn’t concentrated in a few whale wallets.
Make a list of these survivors. Watch how they behave as the market recovers. They often lead the next leg up because they’ve already proven they have a floor.
Tighten your filters
During bull runs, loose filtering works because everything pumps. During bear markets, you need to be significantly more selective. This is the time to set stricter criteria for what you’ll even consider trading:
- Minimum liquidity threshold (I use $20K during bear markets, up from $5K in bull runs)
- Minimum holder count before entry (50+ unique wallets)
- No tokens where top 10 holders control more than 50% of supply
- Clear social presence — active Twitter, Telegram, or Discord with real humans
These stricter filters mean you’ll trade less. That’s the point. In a bear market, the best trade is often no trade at all.
Reduce your position sizes
If you’re still trading during a bear market (and it’s fine if you are), cut your position sizes by at least half. This does two things: it limits your downside on any single trade, and it forces you to be more selective because you’re deploying less capital per trade. You start naturally gravitating toward higher-conviction setups.
How to Spot the Turn
Every bear market ends. The tricky part is knowing when things are actually shifting versus when you’re seeing a dead cat bounce on a market-wide scale.
Here’s what I look for:
- New token launch volume picks up. More tokens launching usually means developers are sensing opportunity again. This tends to lead the broader recovery by a few days.
- Graduation rates increase. If more tokens are making it from PumpFun to Raydium, that means there’s enough buying pressure to push through the bonding curve. That’s real demand, not fake hype.
- Social activity returns organically. Not one influencer pumping their bags, but multiple unrelated accounts talking about new finds. Organic social buzz is one of the most reliable leading indicators.
- One or two breakout tokens emerge. During a bear market, nothing really pumps. When you start seeing one or two tokens genuinely 10x+ on real volume and real holder growth, that’s often the first sign of the turn.
Don’t try to time the exact bottom. Nobody can. Instead, start gradually increasing your activity and position sizes as you see these signals accumulate. Dip your toes in rather than cannonballing back into the pool.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Bear Markets
Here’s what nobody in the “to the moon” culture wants to admit: bear markets are necessary and, ultimately, healthy. They flush out the low-effort cash grabs, the bot-driven projects, and the traders who were just getting lucky during the euphoria. What’s left after a bear market is a leaner, more serious ecosystem.
The traders who consistently make money in memecoins aren’t the ones who catch every pump during bull runs. They’re the ones who survive bear markets with their capital and their psychology intact. They come out the other side with better systems, tighter risk management, and a much more realistic understanding of what this market actually is.
Your first bear market will feel like the worst thing that ever happened to your trading career. Looking back, it might be the best thing. The lessons you learn when losing money are the ones that actually stick.
So if you’re in the middle of one right now: breathe. Step back from the screen. Review your trades. Tighten your filters. Keep scanning for opportunities with a tool like TokenRadar, but don’t force trades that aren’t there. The market will come back. Make sure you’re still standing when it does.